nergnallh
0x18b8a00bd4e526eada07d729054aef7545f31a4c
- Realised P&L
- $-457.64
- Volume
- $7.2k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $677.70
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration47.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · No | 0.440 | 0.167 | $213.27 | −$350.50 |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? · No | 0.780 | 0.825 | $211.54 | +$11.54 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.830 | 0.962 | $181.87 | +$24.83 |
| Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.048 | $55.14 | −$2.86 |
| Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? · Yes | 0.178 | 0.055 | $6.05 | −$13.55 |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? · No | 0.100 | 0.055 | $5.50 | −$4.50 |
| Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.004 | $4.15 | −$2.05 |
| Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win at least 20% of all valid votes? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.001 | $0.19 | −$172.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$23.53at 0.680Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
- +$12.32at 0.932Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
- +$7.85at 0.860Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
- +$1.86at 0.970Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?
- +$1.26at 0.960Will Tidö parties win a majority in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 11:46 | Will Tidö parties win a majority in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.9582504912 | $30.00 |
| 09-13 16:24 | Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win at least 20% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.4507204157 | $60.00 |
| 09-13 16:18 | Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win at least 20% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.4494103078 | $76.21 |
| 09-13 16:15 | Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.9863235471 | $163.95 |
| 09-07 21:06 | OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | BUY | 0.7799999995 | $200.00 |
| 09-07 21:03 | Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0471347914 | $50.00 |
| 09-07 21:01 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL | 0.962 | $261.84 |
| 07-21 17:45 | Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.966 | $96.60 |
| 07-01 13:58 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? | BUY | 0.9699999997 | $60.00 |
| 07-01 13:57 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.995 | $57.84 |
| 06-18 22:43 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY | 0.6799999984 | $50.00 |
| 06-18 22:43 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.8599999935 | $50.00 |
| 05-05 09:36 | Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0164794008 | $2.00 |
| 04-15 11:59 | Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.36 | $3.60 |
| 04-03 00:26 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.3560011655 | $100.00 |