0x18aa4e03182a9bb4d069bece913997325372d085
0x18aa4e03182a9bb4d069bece913997325372d085
- Realised P&L
- $12.86
- Volume
- $444.77
- Markets traded
- 115
- Open portfolio
- $7.94
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.9%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded115
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? · No | 0.430 | 0.996 | $2.32 | +$1.32 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026? · No | 0.700 | 0.963 | $1.37 | +$0.37 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 9? · Up | 0.740 | 0.835 | $1.13 | +$0.13 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? · No | 0.730 | 0.775 | $1.06 | +$0.06 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · No | 0.690 | 0.680 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $180 Week of October 5 2026? · No | 0.690 | 0.675 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $78 Week of October 5 2026? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.055 | $0.10 | −$0.90 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.46at 0.217Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of August 2026?
- +$6.26at 0.249Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
- +$5.94at 0.258Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $183 Week of September 21 2026?
- +$5.92at 0.259Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
- +$5.33at 0.280Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 03:24 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 9? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 19:20 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 07:57 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 23:57 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.2969999442 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 15:56 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 07:44 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 23:44 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $78 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 23:42 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 15:39 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.4299998882 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 07:39 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 23:38 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 15:16 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 04:26 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $180 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 20:25 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.4299998882 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 12:16 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |