mumumur
0x18a418d3e1213ff6103244666fdd91c64b9c5341
- Realised P&L
- $10.87
- Volume
- $2.1k
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $192.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)89.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · No | 0.965 | 0.965 | $51.75 | −$0.03 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · No | 0.940 | 0.945 | $51.62 | +$0.27 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? · No | 0.981 | 0.978 | $40.08 | −$0.14 |
| Will Olivia Miles win the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year award? · Yes | 0.990 | 0.981 | $31.22 | −$0.29 |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026? · No | 0.957 | 0.964 | $17.34 | +$0.12 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.27at 0.950Iran leadership change by August 31?
- +$1.54at 0.942Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?
- +$1.45at 0.971US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?
- +$1.24at 0.934Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?
- +$0.94at 0.966Will Sandy Spidel Neumann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-10 13:09 | Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.9399999981 | $20.28 |