PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

iHaveBeenPwned

0x18a0a8dbe3bc27b41bf2262c9fe459d5cc9bb904

Realised P&L
$2.4k
Volume
$106.4k
Markets traded
82
Open portfolio
$47.1k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar2.2%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded82
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration49.6% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample17 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)82.4%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration11.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? · No0.8450.805$5.0k−$248.09
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? · Yes0.7480.825$4.0k+$374.91
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? · No0.9530.971$3.4k+$60.91
No one announced as next James Bond? · No0.7480.858$2.5k+$326.59
Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? · Yes0.8300.840$1.8k+$21.20
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? · Yes0.9870.983$1.4k−$6.22
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? · No0.9100.930$1.3k+$27.87
Will OpenAI's frontier output token price be at or above $60 in 2026? · No0.9700.973$1.1k+$3.53
Will Gyanesh Kumar be out as Chief Election Commissioner of India by December 31? · No0.7700.825$1.1k+$75.24
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? · No0.9820.983$1.1k+$1.11
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027? · No0.7300.770$1.0k+$53.52
Will GameStop acquire eBay? · No0.9400.955$1.0k+$15.84
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? · Yes0.7900.845$1.0k+$65.52
Trump meets with Putin by December 31? · Yes0.8400.860$1.0k+$23.34
Will OpenAI's frontier output token price be at or above $55 in 2026? · No0.9000.964$964.00+$64.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 22:51Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Turkey?BUY0.0461243049$35.25
11-01 22:09Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?SELL0.3457761809$457.13
11-01 16:59Will Trump speak to Mark Carney by November 30?BUY0.05$0.49
10-31 17:18Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?BUY0.4141236239$395.35
10-31 17:11Will Anthropic IPO by November 19, 2026?BUY0.3739650953$475.27
10-29 11:00Will CNN fly with Trump by October 31?BUY0.91$76.44
10-29 10:24Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?BUY0.96$111.45
10-29 10:06Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?BUY0.91$182.00
10-28 15:43Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by January 31, 2027?BUY0.6$303.20
10-28 15:42Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by January 15, 2027?BUY0.4597435168$258.48
10-28 15:40Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?SELL0.33$174.57
10-28 15:40Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?SELL0.34$8.50
10-28 15:37Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?BUY0.94$313.02
10-27 09:57Will Anthropic IPO by November 19, 2026?BUY0.51$202.61
10-27 09:42Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?BUY0.6509253994$716.62