iHaveBeenPwned
0x18a0a8dbe3bc27b41bf2262c9fe459d5cc9bb904
- Realised P&L
- $2.4k
- Volume
- $106.4k
- Markets traded
- 82
- Open portfolio
- $47.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded82
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration49.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration11.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.8kat 0.563Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?
- +$2.0kat 0.290Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?
- +$237.64at 0.930US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
- +$112.00at 0.860US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?
- +$105.71at 0.880Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 22:51 | Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Turkey? | BUY | 0.0461243049 | $35.25 |
| 11-01 22:09 | Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T? | SELL | 0.3457761809 | $457.13 |
| 11-01 16:59 | Will Trump speak to Mark Carney by November 30? | BUY | 0.05 | $0.49 |
| 10-31 17:18 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.4141236239 | $395.35 |
| 10-31 17:11 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.3739650953 | $475.27 |
| 10-29 11:00 | Will CNN fly with Trump by October 31? | BUY | 0.91 | $76.44 |
| 10-29 10:24 | Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $111.45 |
| 10-29 10:06 | Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $182.00 |
| 10-28 15:43 | Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by January 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.6 | $303.20 |
| 10-28 15:42 | Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by January 15, 2027? | BUY | 0.4597435168 | $258.48 |
| 10-28 15:40 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026? | SELL | 0.33 | $174.57 |
| 10-28 15:40 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026? | SELL | 0.34 | $8.50 |
| 10-28 15:37 | Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $313.02 |
| 10-27 09:57 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.51 | $202.61 |
| 10-27 09:42 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.6509253994 | $716.62 |