0x189b52ee05f20630a7e05a48326bf935ab12fe51
0x189b52ee05f20630a7e05a48326bf935ab12fe51
- Realised P&L
- $23.49
- Volume
- $653.73
- Markets traded
- 174
- Open portfolio
- $5.97
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded174
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration5.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration18.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.370 | $1.12 | +$0.12 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.305 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.335 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September? · No | 0.670 | 0.665 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · No | 0.730 | 0.670 | $0.92 | −$0.08 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.510 | $0.91 | −$0.09 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.72at 0.218Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?
- +$9.72at 0.218Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
- +$6.98at 0.278Trump renames AI by September 30?
- +$6.96at 0.280Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?
- +$6.64at 0.288S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 16?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 19:09 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 19:07 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 18:57 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 10:56 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 02:56 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 18:55 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 10:41 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.775 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 02:41 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 14:29 | Will Corpus Christi FC win on 2026-10-07? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 13:54 | SC Internacional vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 15:36 | Will FC Supra Du Quebec win on 2026-10-07? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 11:59 | Will Spalding United FC win on 2026-10-06? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 11:24 | Will Guandong GZ-Power FC win on 2026-10-07? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 07:32 | Wingate & Finchley FC vs. Bedford Town FC: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 12:53 | Kazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |