0x189a6fc46a6bc241a55a79d76388d5d4cfcac2db
- Realised P&L
- $37.57
- Volume
- $1.6k
- Markets traded
- 65
- Open portfolio
- $51.30
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded65
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)4.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration78.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.75at 0.250Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?
- +$0.00at 0.010Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
- +$-0.02at 0.400Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?
- +$-0.04at 0.206Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- +$-0.05at 0.720Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-01 18:34 | Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.25 |
| 06-01 17:49 | Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? | BUY | 0.18 | $0.97 |
| 06-01 15:35 | Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.25 | $1.29 |
| 06-01 15:27 | Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.28 | $1.45 |
| 06-01 15:25 | Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.23 | $1.19 |
| 06-01 15:18 | Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.3 | $1.55 |
| 06-01 10:43 | Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.11 | $0.56 |
| 06-01 10:37 | Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.22 | $1.12 |
| 06-01 08:16 | Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.3 | $1.53 |
| 06-01 08:10 | Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.33 | $1.68 |
| 06-01 07:18 | Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.46 | $1.55 |
| 05-31 21:43 | Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.39 | $1.99 |
| 05-31 21:43 | Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.2 | $1.02 |
| 05-31 21:43 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.205 | $1.05 |
| 05-31 21:43 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.33 | $1.69 |