0x183Cd63283423F577774d5EA7ae04FaF53CF0178-1778154150160
0x183cd63283423f577774d5ea7ae04faf53cf0178
- Realised P&L
- $-51.25
- Volume
- $949.79
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $7.66
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration66.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.155 | 0.021 | $4.01 | −$24.99 |
| Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.050 | $3.65 | −$10.35 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? · No | 0.700 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Russia enter Svitle by June 30? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Putin visit China by May 31? · No | 0.130 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.029 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by July 31? · Yes | 0.065 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$20.04at 0.339Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
- +$7.12at 0.587Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
- +$3.16at 0.760US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$-1.61at 0.587Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-14 11:17 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1799999892 | $13.00 |
| 07-14 10:52 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0338280543 | $5.00 |
| 07-14 10:50 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.54 | $18.39 |
| 07-11 20:21 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1399999928 | $16.00 |
| 07-11 20:21 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0260675079 | $5.00 |
| 07-11 20:17 | Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30? | BUY | 0.179999987 | $10.00 |
| 06-08 09:42 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.5499999807 | $10.00 |
| 06-04 09:53 | Will Russia enter Svitle by June 30? | BUY | 0.08 | $5.00 |
| 06-04 09:48 | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY | 0.699999993 | $10.00 |
| 06-04 09:45 | Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by July 31? | BUY | 0.0654205489 | $5.00 |
| 05-13 06:11 | Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30? | BUY | 0.2199999593 | $4.00 |
| 05-13 06:07 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.6299999483 | $10.00 |
| 05-13 06:06 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? | BUY | 0.3395995917 | $10.00 |
| 05-13 06:05 | Will Putin visit China by May 31? | BUY | 0.1299999789 | $5.00 |
| 05-13 05:52 | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3299999812 | $10.00 |