cka3ka
0x183469041d706a2d24d96ce0b72425181fda4c98
- Realised P&L
- $-237.98
- Volume
- $20.5k
- Markets traded
- 88
- Open portfolio
- $5.39
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded88
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample43 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)69.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$24.82at 0.553Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?
- +$17.03at 0.693Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch?
- +$12.26at 0.620Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-20?
- +$10.30at 0.660Magic vs. Warriors
- +$10.11at 0.009Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 11?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-28 07:05 | Will Ink launch a token by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1343621086 | $93.00 |
| 06-15 20:23 | Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0090616646 | $11.00 |
| 06-15 20:21 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.107 | $12.20 |
| 06-11 14:51 | Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.007 | $4.59 |
| 05-26 07:30 | Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.022999989 | $2.00 |
| 05-20 20:43 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0869999957 | $17.00 |
| 05-20 20:37 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0869999631 | $2.00 |
| 05-20 20:37 | Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? | SELL | 0.66 | $0.98 |
| 05-20 20:36 | Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election? | SELL | 0.9 | $0.95 |
| 05-20 20:20 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 21? | BUY | 0.3299998927 | $2.00 |
| 05-20 20:19 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 21? | BUY | 0.3299997822 | $1.00 |
| 05-18 17:41 | Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 05-18 17:40 | Will Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election? | BUY | 0.84 | $1.00 |
| 05-18 17:39 | Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | BUY | 0.6099998597 | $1.00 |
| 05-16 16:54 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 17? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |