0x18343264F81311A5759ACD3655a99c09A71E4d07-1781124769508
0x18343264f81311a5759acd3655a99c09a71e4d07
- Realised P&L
- $-412.25
- Volume
- $31.3k
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $110.58
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration86.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? · Yes | 0.113 | 0.075 | $57.34 | −$29.11 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.345 | $30.79 | +$5.79 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the NY-13 House seat? · No | 0.050 | 0.043 | $17.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? · Yes | 0.041 | 0.009 | $3.59 | −$11.94 |
| Will the US strike 12 countries in 2026? · Yes | 0.073 | 0.013 | $1.85 | −$8.15 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$149.00 |
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? · Yes | 0.018 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$87.11 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.70at 0.050Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?
- +$1.04at 0.384Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- +$-137.48at 0.017Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-13 11:47 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? | BUY | 0.1 | $56.46 |
| 07-13 08:54 | Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.0669904148 | $26.70 |
| 06-25 01:58 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.4 | $26.04 |
| 06-15 16:04 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.2799999928 | $25.00 |
| 06-15 16:04 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.3839999945 | $25.00 |
| 06-14 17:51 | Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? | SELL | 0.005 | $56.10 |
| 06-14 17:28 | Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? | BUY | 0.0306554429 | $96.87 |
| 06-14 16:17 | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? | BUY | 0.1 | $149.00 |
| 06-13 20:03 | Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? | BUY | 0.013 | $29.04 |
| 06-13 19:29 | Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? | BUY | 0.0150079082 | $29.02 |
| 06-13 19:03 | Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? | BUY | 0.0529999983 | $29.05 |
| 06-12 11:57 | Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? | BUY | 0.041130202 | $15.53 |
| 06-11 16:59 | Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.050183586 | $20.00 |
| 06-11 16:58 | Will the Democratic Party win the NY-13 House seat? | BUY | 0.05 | $20.00 |
| 06-11 16:55 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? | BUY | 0.15 | $30.00 |