0x181E53224ef4F8A72150d5365CEBA21758989d60-1773431461351
0x181e53224ef4f8a72150d5365ceba21758989d60
- Realised P&L
- $11.10
- Volume
- $29.2k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $20.99
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration96.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on September 29? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $20.99 | +$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.21at 0.958Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
- +$0.22at 0.978Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?
- +$0.15at 0.989Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on March 1?
- +$0.12at 0.991Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on February 19?
- +$0.08at 0.994Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 20?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 05:22 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on September 29? | BUY | 0.999 | $20.98 |
| 07-06 07:14 | Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.003 | $5.97 |
| 06-29 07:16 | Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? | BUY | 0.004 | $7.96 |
| 06-22 06:43 | Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.004 | $7.16 |
| 05-15 08:21 | Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | BUY | 0.006 | $9.66 |
| 05-11 04:17 | Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? | BUY | 0.006 | $9.36 |
| 04-15 05:30 | Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.011 | $9.90 |
| 04-11 05:41 | Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.008 | $9.68 |
| 04-09 09:01 | Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.011 | $9.79 |
| 04-02 08:26 | Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.008 | $9.44 |
| 04-02 08:25 | Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.008 | $9.44 |