0x181cEc1E00fd78B085861dd6a97428FdD4300A41-1758535236128
0x181cec1e00fd78b085861dd6a97428fdd4300a41
- Realised P&L
- $80.50
- Volume
- $1.2k
- Markets traded
- 4
- Open portfolio
- $44.20
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar6.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded4
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration74.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.232 | 0.158 | $44.20 | −$20.80 |
| Will any contestant beat Luke Littler? · No | 0.219 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$66.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$59.67at 0.650Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
- +$20.84at 0.400Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 15:33 | Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2315978586 | $65.00 |
| 10-30 18:51 | Will any contestant beat Luke Littler? | BUY | 0.2164765249 | $17.00 |
| 10-30 18:09 | Will any contestant beat Luke Littler? | BUY | 0.2199999997 | $49.00 |
| 04-13 12:09 | Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+? | SELL | 0.989 | $34.98 |
| 04-13 12:09 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL | 0.99 | $162.97 |
| 04-06 17:58 | Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+? | BUY | 0.4 | $14.15 |
| 04-06 17:55 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY | 0.6499999982 | $107.00 |
| 03-06 16:42 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL | 0.61 | $29.23 |
| 03-06 16:39 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL | 0.61 | $9.74 |
| 03-06 16:22 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL | 0.61 | $12.81 |
| 03-06 16:01 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL | 0.6 | $12.00 |
| 03-06 15:51 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL | 0.6 | $12.00 |
| 03-05 15:24 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL | 0.63 | $20.16 |
| 03-02 15:51 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL | 0.640353125 | $20.49 |
| 03-01 16:24 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY | 0.629999999 | $119.00 |