smoltrader
0x17e5540bc696fd3e8b7da9101a93e4835c783d19
- Realised P&L
- $72.6k
- Volume
- $37.28M
- Markets traded
- 5,686
- Open portfolio
- $377.16
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded5,686
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration16.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.001 | $81.41 | −$560.45 |
| Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.001 | $81.41 | −$560.45 |
| Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.004 | $37.96 | +$1.22 |
| Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.001 | $28.76 | −$221.74 |
| Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.001 | $28.76 | −$221.74 |
| Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.001 | $28.76 | −$221.74 |
| Will Candace Owens win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.001 | $28.76 | −$221.74 |
| Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.001 | $28.76 | −$221.74 |
| Will James Fishback win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.001 | $28.76 | −$221.74 |
| Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.001 | $3.82 | −$26.24 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$17.7kat 0.332No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
- +$14.6kat 0.986Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?
- +$13.6kat 0.560Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
- +$11.7kat 0.004Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$11.4kat 0.985Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-24 20:23 | Will John McEntee win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.001 | $70.54 |
| 10-24 20:22 | Will Mitch Landrieu win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.001 | $162.83 |
| 10-24 20:21 | Will Chris Van Hollen win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.001 | $162.83 |
| 10-24 20:21 | Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.01 | $2.26 |
| 10-24 20:21 | Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.011 | $1.20 |
| 10-24 20:21 | Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.012 | $0.22 |
| 10-24 20:20 | Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.006 | $275.85 |
| 10-24 20:19 | Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.006 | $345.12 |
| 08-23 11:55 | Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.008 | $9.38 |
| 08-23 11:54 | Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.007 | $10.94 |
| 08-23 11:54 | Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.001 | $70.54 |
| 08-23 11:54 | Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.001 | $70.54 |
| 08-23 11:53 | Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.001 | $70.54 |
| 08-23 11:53 | Will Rick Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.001 | $70.54 |
| 08-23 11:53 | Will Candace Owens win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.002 | $141.09 |