xneguvxo351
0x17d848f666c9d7ef8618a7642aca44ad0a06e57a
- Realised P&L
- $-62.79
- Volume
- $110.7k
- Markets traded
- 63
- Open portfolio
- $2.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded63
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.945 | $945.00 | +$25.00 |
| Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.860 | 0.935 | $935.00 | +$75.00 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes | 0.720 | 0.705 | $197.22 | −$4.20 |
| Will Democrats win the Texas, Michigan, and Maine Senate seats? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.575 | $115.00 | +$19.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$540.78at 0.120Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
- +$512.62at 0.414Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
- +$480.00at 0.520Will the Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2025 Indian Premier League?
- +$184.29at 0.389Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
- +$150.00at 0.700Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 10:29 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.72 | $201.42 |
| 10-28 21:40 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.973 | $198.32 |
| 10-26 06:00 | Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.86 | $860.00 |
| 10-26 05:46 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.92 | $464.15 |
| 10-14 22:21 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | SELL | 0.4 | $799.98 |
| 05-27 11:22 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET | SELL | 0.65 | $3.42 |
| 05-27 11:22 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET | SELL | 0.672449298 | $21.55 |
| 05-27 11:22 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET | BUY | 0.6699999973 | $25.00 |
| 05-26 17:36 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET | BUY | 0.2 | $25.00 |
| 05-26 17:32 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET | BUY | 0.1099999962 | $25.00 |
| 05-26 17:25 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET | BUY | 0.4299999967 | $25.00 |
| 10-18 15:11 | Will Bournemouth win on 2025-10-18? | SELL | 0.81 | $0.81 |
| 10-18 07:13 | Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? | SELL | 0.17 | $11.73 |
| 07-25 19:39 | Will India win the match? | SELL | 0.026 | $0.00 |
| 07-25 19:36 | Will India win the match? | SELL | 0.0359533333 | $0.76 |