0x1798577bb374966ff424ff4557bcf995bddd8a27
0x1798577bb374966ff424ff4557bcf995bddd8a27
- Realised P&L
- $-0.24
- Volume
- $237.29
- Markets traded
- 74
- Open portfolio
- $1.53
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded74
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration67.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · No | 0.600 | 0.615 | $1.02 | +$0.03 |
| Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $194 Week of October 5 2026? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.390 | $0.50 | −$0.50 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.60at 0.310Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$3.41at 0.370US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
- +$2.60at 0.435Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?
- +$2.50at 0.450Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $63 Week of August 17 2026?
- +$2.49at 0.452Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 22:27 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $194 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 14:20 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 02:51 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 05:47 | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in September? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-22 21:24 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-22 13:24 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 09-22 05:14 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $78 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 05:19 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 03:30 | Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.7799995632 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 18:55 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 07:45 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 07:31 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 21:46 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 13:17 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 7 to September 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 04:55 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in August? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |