0x174f1249378776b09a6b3c1624128f0ace328a7f
0x174f1249378776b09a6b3c1624128f0ace328a7f
- Realised P&L
- $-1.95
- Volume
- $163.26
- Markets traded
- 46
- Open portfolio
- $5.73
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded46
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration9.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample42 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)69.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.839 | $1.40 | +$0.40 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections? · Yes | 0.712 | 0.903 | $1.27 | +$0.27 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET · Up | 0.870 | 1.000 | $1.15 | +$0.15 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes | 0.670 | 0.655 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will Manchester City be deducted Premier League points by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.870 | 0.815 | $0.94 | −$0.06 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.71at 0.600Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET
- +$0.70at 0.560US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
- +$0.68at 0.610Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 8PM ET
- +$0.65at 0.620Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET
- +$0.52at 0.460Will the United States win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 20:37 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET | BUY | 0.8699999913 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 11:28 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 00:42 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 8PM ET | BUY | 0.5699999886 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 00:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 00:37 | Ethereum Up or Down - October 4, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET | BUY | 0.8199999836 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 00:35 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 15:31 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 09:45 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 09:43 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.6 | $0.70 |
| 09-30 15:24 | Will Manchester City be deducted Premier League points by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.8699994606 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 13:06 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET | BUY | 0.5799999768 | $1.00 |
| 09-29 16:44 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 19:44 | Will Belgium win on 2026-09-28? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 02:16 | Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | SELL | 0.042 | $0.42 |
| 09-09 00:25 | Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections? | BUY | 0.7119999886 | $1.00 |