hulkbaby - 39016
0x174d5409dc8ff0b0a397fb0d0a5dcf41ea76bcf8
- Realised P&L
- $-238.69
- Volume
- $7.6k
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $253.14
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- CautionSettled sample1 position
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)0.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration98.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran strike Lebanon in March? · Yes | 0.080 | 1.000 | $250.00 | +$230.00 |
| Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.139 | 0.005 | $3.14 | −$83.86 |
| Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? · Yes | 0.014 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)? · Yes | 0.014 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? · Yes | 0.469 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$240.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$-50.66at 0.125Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-09 05:36 | Iran leadership change by April 30? | BUY | 0.468652554 | $240.00 |
| 03-09 05:32 | Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.0139860079 | $20.00 |
| 03-09 04:25 | Will Iran strike Lebanon in March? | BUY | 0.08 | $20.00 |
| 03-07 19:23 | Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)? | BUY | 0.0139223959 | $20.00 |
| 03-07 19:03 | Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31? | BUY | 0.1254074992 | $50.66 |
| 03-07 18:41 | Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0169303121 | $50.00 |
| 03-07 18:29 | Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.1385312491 | $87.00 |