0x171f022d315b03977a301ce80c32fe6c2cc35229
0x171f022d315b03977a301ce80c32fe6c2cc35229
- Realised P&L
- $-10.60
- Volume
- $157.57
- Markets traded
- 39
- Open portfolio
- $2.02
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded39
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample35 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.255 | $1.06 | +$0.06 |
| Will OpenRouter process between 165T and 175T tokens the week of October 5? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.280 | $0.90 | −$0.10 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.018 | $0.05 | −$0.95 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.65at 0.361Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$3.49at 0.371Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?
- +$1.70at 0.432Will MGM Resorts (MGM) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$1.57at 0.560Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 12+ times during Michigan remarks?
- +$1.56at 0.480Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $412.50 Week of July 27 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-06 03:42 | Will OpenRouter process between 165T and 175T tokens the week of October 5? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 18:30 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 03:54 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 18:14 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 10:12 | Will ISM Services PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in September? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 12:07 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $525 in September? | BUY | 0.4199998908 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 03:14 | Will Xiaomi be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.3029999112 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 19:11 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 07:30 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September? | BUY | 0.7799995632 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 08:08 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 23:21 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.48 |
| 08-13 05:17 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.00 |
| 08-06 08:00 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.6599998944 | $2.00 |
| 08-06 00:00 | Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%? | BUY | 0.5499999725 | $2.00 |
| 08-05 15:58 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $2.00 |