0x171ea122d97b8df4563c2c6ef447424910923647
- Realised P&L
- $4.90
- Volume
- $666.00
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $2.80
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration51.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.216 | 0.095 | $1.61 | −$2.05 |
| Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.105 | $0.73 | −$0.45 |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.075 | $0.45 | −$0.81 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.00at 0.900Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?
- +$1.02at 0.120U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
- +$0.91at 0.790Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
- +$0.81at 0.460U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
- +$0.73at 0.749Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-16 19:08 | Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | BUY | 0.851 | $4.25 |
| 07-05 10:38 | Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.78 | $3.90 |
| 07-01 05:34 | Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.9 | $5.40 |
| 06-21 21:40 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.60 |
| 06-18 08:03 | China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.84 | $5.04 |
| 06-17 15:35 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.17 | $1.19 |
| 06-01 13:43 | Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | BUY | 0.925 | $5.55 |
| 06-01 13:43 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.77 | $13.09 |
| 06-01 13:42 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.23 | $2.07 |
| 06-01 13:42 | China coup attempt before 2027? | BUY | 0.966 | $4.83 |
| 04-23 08:23 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.79 | $5.53 |
| 04-23 08:23 | Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? | BUY | 0.83 | $4.98 |
| 04-23 08:23 | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BUY | 0.07 | $1.61 |
| 04-23 08:23 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.79 | $10.27 |
| 04-23 08:23 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.21 | $3.15 |