0x171c55df7ab328b5c5e654f1051db76d002ed929
0x171c55df7ab328b5c5e654f1051db76d002ed929
- Realised P&L
- $5.99
- Volume
- $385.08
- Markets traded
- 110
- Open portfolio
- $9.08
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded110
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.650 | $1.86 | +$0.86 |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.864 | $1.08 | +$0.08 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? · No | 0.710 | 0.745 | $1.05 | +$0.05 |
| Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in September? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.330 | $1.03 | +$0.03 |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.475 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 68% to 69%? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.230 | $0.96 | −$0.04 |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.340 | $0.89 | −$0.11 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? · No | 0.450 | 0.395 | $0.88 | −$0.12 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.095 | $0.34 | −$0.66 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.62at 0.270Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18?
- +$5.09at 0.288Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $186 Week of August 24 2026?
- +$4.01at 0.339SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 20?
- +$3.13at 0.249Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?
- +$3.08at 0.400Will Trump say "Kamala" during remarks in New York?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-10 21:40 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in September? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 21:35 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September? | BUY | 0.4799998464 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 13:28 | Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 68% to 69%? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 04:56 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 19:32 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 11:28 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 03:28 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 19:28 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 07:55 | Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 07:55 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7349999228 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 23:55 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7039998536 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 15:55 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 15:44 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 07:37 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 07:37 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |