4564y56c
0x170de0d5bb30cd09c3a1e5d2d1d64f9d9386501c
- Realised P&L
- $-7.62
- Volume
- $146.08
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $3.12
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration55.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.295 | $1.47 | −$1.43 |
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.448 | 0.110 | $0.86 | −$2.64 |
| Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.570 | 0.350 | $0.61 | −$0.39 |
| Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.034 | $0.17 | −$2.08 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? · Yes | 0.098 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.02at 0.980Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October?
- +$0.01at 0.993Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October?
- +$0.01at 0.993Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October?
- +$0.00at 0.998Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?
- +$-0.01at 0.997Putin out as President of Russia in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-14 10:28 | Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.5699994984 | $1.00 |
| 01-07 09:35 | Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.71 | $2.00 |
| 12-29 13:23 | Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? | SELL | 0.996 | $8.98 |
| 12-29 13:23 | Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? | BUY | 0.9969999158 | $9.00 |
| 12-29 13:23 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? | SELL | 0.9930840708 | $8.98 |
| 12-29 13:23 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? | BUY | 0.9949999033 | $9.00 |
| 12-29 13:22 | Trump out as President in 2025? | SELL | 0.997 | $8.97 |
| 12-29 13:19 | Trump out as President in 2025? | BUY | 0.999000001 | $9.00 |
| 12-29 13:19 | Modi out in 2025? | SELL | 0.994 | $8.95 |
| 12-29 13:17 | Modi out in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.00 |
| 12-29 13:17 | Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? | SELL | 0.994 | $9.97 |
| 12-29 13:15 | Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? | BUY | 0.9969999269 | $10.00 |
| 12-29 13:15 | Weed rescheduled in 2025? | SELL | 0.996 | $9.99 |
| 12-29 13:12 | Weed rescheduled in 2025? | BUY | 0.9969999269 | $10.00 |
| 11-30 02:51 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? | BUY | 0.0979999177 | $1.00 |