0x16f600864cdd25a051852349ffb9144d14c1b330
- Realised P&L
- $14.87
- Volume
- $423.00
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $72.53
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration86.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? · No | 0.910 | 0.969 | $22.28 | +$1.35 |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.685 | $21.23 | +$14.41 |
| SBF released from custody in 2026? · No | 0.500 | 0.976 | $17.57 | +$8.57 |
| Will Iran legalize gay marriage? · No | 0.977 | 0.981 | $4.90 | +$0.02 |
| Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? · No | 0.932 | 0.957 | $4.78 | +$0.12 |
| Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.075 | $0.82 | −$2.81 |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.075 | $0.60 | −$0.52 |
| Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.034 | $0.34 | −$0.66 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.45at 0.792Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.20at 0.516Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
- +$0.11at 0.850US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?
- +$0.09at 0.949China coup attempt before 2027?
- +$0.00at 0.933Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-19 16:26 | Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.20 |
| 06-18 05:08 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.14 | $1.12 |
| 06-13 14:28 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.932 | $13.98 |
| 06-11 14:11 | Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? | BUY | 0.17 | $1.02 |
| 06-06 15:25 | Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.33 | $3.63 |
| 06-03 04:11 | Will Iran legalize gay marriage? | BUY | 0.977 | $4.88 |
| 04-26 21:19 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.792 | $12.67 |
| 04-26 21:19 | China coup attempt before 2027? | BUY | 0.949 | $4.75 |
| 04-26 21:19 | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BUY | 0.933 | $6.53 |
| 04-26 21:18 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.485 | $2.42 |
| 04-26 21:18 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.516 | $4.13 |
| 04-14 22:56 | Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.62 | $6.20 |
| 04-14 22:56 | Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.38 | $6.84 |
| 04-12 16:22 | Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 04-10 11:36 | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? | BUY | 0.85 | $9.35 |