PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x16f600864cdd25a051852349ffb9144d14c1b330

Realised P&L
$14.87
Volume
$423.00
Markets traded
16
Open portfolio
$72.53

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar3.5%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
BlockerMarkets traded16
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
BlockerProfit concentration86.1% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample12 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration30.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? · No0.9100.969$22.28+$1.35
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? · Yes0.2200.685$21.23+$14.41
SBF released from custody in 2026? · No0.5000.976$17.57+$8.57
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? · No0.9770.981$4.90+$0.02
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? · No0.9320.957$4.78+$0.12
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes0.3300.075$0.82$2.81
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · Yes0.1400.075$0.60$0.52
Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes0.1000.034$0.34$0.66

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
06-19 16:26Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?BUY0.2$1.20
06-18 05:08Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?BUY0.14$1.12
06-13 14:28Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?BUY0.932$13.98
06-11 14:11Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?BUY0.17$1.02
06-06 15:25Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?BUY0.33$3.63
06-03 04:11Will Iran legalize gay marriage?BUY0.977$4.88
04-26 21:19Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?BUY0.792$12.67
04-26 21:19China coup attempt before 2027?BUY0.949$4.75
04-26 21:19Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?BUY0.933$6.53
04-26 21:18Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?BUY0.485$2.42
04-26 21:18Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?BUY0.516$4.13
04-14 22:56Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?BUY0.62$6.20
04-14 22:56Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?BUY0.38$6.84
04-12 16:22Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027?BUY0.1$1.00
04-10 11:36US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?BUY0.85$9.35