earthperson
0x16f0ed7900a91fcf16440b3e0983015e23293fe6
- Realised P&L
- $-26.04
- Volume
- $7.5k
- Markets traded
- 68
- Open portfolio
- $20.89
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded68
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample25 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$84.94at 0.370Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$76.25at 0.103US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$60.00at 0.250Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
- +$22.96at 0.603US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
- +$15.70at 0.686US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 08:55 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.43 | $2.15 |
| 07-31 08:51 | Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 10+ times during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.44 | $1.63 |
| 07-31 08:47 | Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | BUY | 0.3 | $1.50 |
| 07-31 08:41 | IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31? | BUY | 0.28 | $1.40 |
| 07-31 08:39 | Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.31 | $1.55 |
| 07-14 01:36 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.174 | $0.06 |
| 07-14 01:36 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.389 | $0.33 |
| 07-14 01:36 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.217 | $1.06 |
| 07-14 01:36 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.211 | $2.01 |
| 07-03 23:58 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.352 | $1.13 |
| 07-03 23:57 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.121 | $0.54 |
| 06-30 18:02 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.193 | $0.42 |
| 06-30 18:01 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.193 | $0.55 |
| 06-24 08:50 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.18 |
| 06-18 07:41 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | SELL | 0.51 | $3.90 |