0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704
0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704
- Realised P&L
- $336.6k
- Volume
- $22.99M
- Markets traded
- 4,641
- Open portfolio
- $29.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded4,641
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration18.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.9kat 0.179Will Everton vs. Liverpool end in a draw?
- +$12.3kat 0.138Will France win Eurovision 2025?
- +$11.5kat 0.297Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
- +$11.1kat 0.020Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- +$10.2kat 0.007Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 07:47 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.69 | $196.65 |
| 10-30 07:45 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.876 | $600.73 |
| 10-29 21:40 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.837 | $1.7k |
| 10-29 17:28 | Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.97 | $0.13 |
| 10-27 20:35 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.119 | $210.78 |
| 10-27 12:41 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.808 | $2.8k |
| 10-22 11:35 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.908 | $908.25 |
| 10-20 19:36 | Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.02 | $17.31 |
| 10-20 08:45 | Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.006 | $767.99 |
| 10-12 22:31 | Will Erling Haaland (Man City) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Premier League season? | BUY | 0.37 | $135.38 |
| 10-12 17:26 | Will Chelsea win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? | BUY | 0.053 | $36.40 |
| 10-03 09:23 | Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.97 | $797.45 |
| 10-02 09:34 | Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.006 | $90.00 |
| 09-29 17:52 | Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.005 | $5.00 |
| 09-25 15:19 | Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? | BUY | 0.71 | $4.89 |