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0x16c2a114f93dbdf0d91428737cab3f0f7fcc01dc
- Realised P&L
- $469.58
- Volume
- $31.4k
- Markets traded
- 37
- Open portfolio
- $381.85
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded37
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample30 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration63.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.410 | 0.240 | $240.55 | −$170.40 |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.444 | 0.403 | $128.80 | −$13.28 |
| Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.001 | $12.50 | −$12.50 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? · No | 0.880 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.40 |
| Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.30 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes | 0.339 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.69 |
| Norway vs. England: 1st Half O/U 0.5 · Under | 0.330 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.37 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$52.81at 0.407Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance
- +$25.65at 0.795France vs. Morocco: Team to Advance
- +$25.04at 0.750Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advance
- +$24.06at 0.759Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance
- +$18.76at 0.782Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-27 20:24 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.444 | $142.08 |
| 10-27 17:48 | Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.001 | $25.00 |
| 10-21 15:11 | Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.18 | $42.82 |
| 10-21 15:09 | Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.76 | $211.55 |
| 09-14 07:33 | Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.32 | $29.48 |
| 09-14 07:21 | Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.31 | $29.03 |
| 09-14 07:19 | Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.61 | $61.00 |
| 09-09 07:41 | Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.46 | $15.18 |
| 09-09 07:38 | Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.46 | $23.00 |
| 09-08 15:06 | Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.47 | $6.95 |
| 09-08 15:05 | Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.67 | $6.70 |
| 09-07 07:31 | Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.46 | $9.20 |
| 09-07 07:30 | Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.86 | $28.33 |
| 08-27 09:18 | Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.57 | $34.56 |
| 08-26 14:26 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.336 | $35.57 |