CedricDlv
0x16c012a17cc2365bdb90b0be7ec1aeed97ac4d20
- Realised P&L
- $-36.48
- Volume
- $4.4k
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $568.28
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration50.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)73.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.826 | 0.840 | $568.28 | +$9.14 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$190.41at 0.548Lecornu out as French PM by June 30, 2026?
- +$79.20at 0.560French election called by October 31?
- +$32.70at 0.940Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?
- +$18.42at 0.849Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?
- +$17.46at 0.891Lecornu out as French PM by July 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-09 23:53 | Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.8299999834 | $4.00 |
| 07-09 23:52 | Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.83 | $20.75 |
| 07-09 23:51 | Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.82 | $110.70 |
| 07-09 23:49 | Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.81 | $41.30 |
| 07-09 23:48 | Lecornu out as French PM by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.98818 | $177.87 |
| 06-27 01:49 | Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.83 | $382.40 |
| 06-27 01:45 | Lecornu out as French PM by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8866666667 | $159.60 |
| 03-20 02:34 | Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? | BUY | 0.94 | $361.90 |
| 03-20 02:32 | Lecornu out as French PM by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.8727197188 | $511.49 |
| 01-13 01:59 | Lecornu out as French PM by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5170728138 | $14.13 |
| 01-13 01:56 | Lecornu out as French PM by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.49 | $2.99 |
| 12-02 02:27 | Lecornu out as French PM by December 31? | BUY | 0.94 | $45.12 |
| 11-16 02:39 | French election called by December 31? | BUY | 0.92 | $172.96 |
| 11-14 18:46 | Will Macron call a referendum by December 31? | BUY | 0.94 | $22.32 |
| 11-04 14:29 | Nicolas Sarkozy released from custody by November 30? | BUY | 0.31 | $42.66 |