0x16a4febeed956bc40f2d03e9e377196dd171c1e8
0x16a4febeed956bc40f2d03e9e377196dd171c1e8
- Realised P&L
- $0.95
- Volume
- $321.92
- Markets traded
- 97
- Open portfolio
- $5.10
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded97
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 67% to 68%? · No | 0.590 | 0.935 | $1.58 | +$0.58 |
| Will PPI YoY be 5.9% or more in September? · No | 0.660 | 0.860 | $1.30 | +$0.30 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · No | 0.770 | 1.000 | $1.30 | +$0.30 |
| Will Meta’s Q3 headcount be above 68000? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.670 | $0.92 | −$0.08 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.62at 0.239Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
- +$3.72at 0.218Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?
- +$3.65at 0.361Will ISM Services PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in August?
- +$3.31at 0.239Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?
- +$2.65at 0.430US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 02:32 | Will Meta’s Q3 headcount be above 68000? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 18:31 | Will PPI YoY be 5.9% or more in September? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 22:28 | Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September? | BUY | 0.4199998908 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 14:27 | Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 67% to 68%? | BUY | 0.5899997404 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 06:19 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.759999696 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 21:29 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September? | BUY | 0.4799998464 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 12:52 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 04:41 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.7699995842 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 17:42 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.4509999797 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 09:29 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 23:45 | Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 15:39 | Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? | BUY | 0.6789998051 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 07:17 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.6639996016 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 23:17 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 15:17 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |