pdlh
0x169b8e2a1d5a3e9d840a08074a090afa82a730c9
- Realised P&L
- $-865.39
- Volume
- $207.6k
- Markets traded
- 387
- Open portfolio
- $1.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded387
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No | 0.906 | 0.935 | $721.70 | +$22.00 |
| Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? · Yes | 0.978 | 0.987 | $305.97 | +$2.79 |
| Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? · Yes | 0.936 | 0.955 | $161.76 | +$3.28 |
| Will South Sudan have an Ebola case in 2026? · Yes | 0.653 | 0.640 | $134.34 | −$2.80 |
| Will Rwanda have an Ebola case in 2026? · Yes | 0.432 | 0.290 | $126.42 | −$61.94 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · No | 0.905 | 0.965 | $103.76 | +$6.37 |
| Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.900 | 0.905 | $81.45 | +$0.45 |
| Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.210 | $4.20 | −$4.40 |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$24.80 |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? · No | 0.828 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$364.30 |
| Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? · No | 0.960 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$57.59 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$306.01at 0.822Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?
- +$292.10at 0.728Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days?
- +$219.43at 0.725Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?
- +$193.42at 0.776Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
- +$153.88at 0.597GPT-5 released in 2024?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 18:36 | Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $27.00 |
| 08-02 18:36 | Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $54.00 |
| 08-02 12:57 | Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? | BUY | 0.978 | $303.18 |
| 08-01 04:46 | Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record? | BUY | 0.64 | $25.60 |
| 07-29 16:04 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.91 | $182.00 |
| 07-29 15:52 | Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? | SELL | 0.945 | $41.31 |
| 07-26 05:19 | Will South Sudan have an Ebola case in 2026? | BUY | 0.63 | $3.15 |
| 07-26 05:15 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.76 | $889.19 |
| 07-24 03:35 | Will South Sudan have an Ebola case in 2026? | BUY | 0.62 | $6.20 |
| 07-23 03:27 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.71 | $28.40 |
| 07-21 18:37 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.9 | $36.00 |
| 07-21 18:37 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.9 | $27.00 |
| 07-21 18:01 | Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? | SELL | 0.952 | $19.40 |
| 07-21 10:51 | Will Rwanda have an Ebola case in 2026? | BUY | 0.36 | $5.40 |
| 07-21 09:22 | Will South Sudan have an Ebola case in 2026? | BUY | 0.69 | $20.70 |