Profs650536
0x1690a2992ac456182603aefff6b9d0099dd572c8
- Realised P&L
- $-7.87
- Volume
- $157.6k
- Markets traded
- 88
- Open portfolio
- $16.09
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded88
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.5kat 0.123Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$2.0kat 0.076Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$1.2kat 0.100Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
- +$998.80at 0.051Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$930.00at 0.110Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-04 10:50 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on October 5? | BUY | 0.1299999916 | $1.71 |
| 10-04 10:50 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on October 5? | BUY | 0.1431506849 | $4.18 |
| 10-04 10:48 | Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on October 5? | BUY | 0.2399999849 | $2.54 |
| 10-04 10:45 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on October 5? | BUY | 0.689999997 | $4.61 |
| 10-04 10:45 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on October 5? | BUY | 0.1099999967 | $2.67 |
| 10-04 10:44 | Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on October 5? | BUY | 0.2199999798 | $1.31 |
| 09-30 14:29 | Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on September 30? | SELL | 0.15 | $0.75 |
| 09-29 05:26 | Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on September 30? | BUY | 0.64 | $3.20 |
| 09-25 05:53 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on September 25? | SELL | 0.22 | $1.12 |
| 09-25 05:51 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on September 25? | SELL | 0.87 | $4.35 |
| 09-25 05:51 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on September 25? | BUY | 0.4709130935 | $2.70 |
| 09-25 05:51 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on September 25? | BUY | 0.2125675589 | $1.43 |
| 09-25 05:46 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on September 25? | BUY | 0.3699999966 | $2.20 |
| 09-25 05:45 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on September 25? | BUY | 0.2021569078 | $2.66 |
| 09-25 05:41 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on September 25? | BUY | 0.4 | $2.05 |