0x168dEED73838605b1391eE340cBeefbfbc7702B4-1776434041291
0x168deed73838605b1391ee340cbeefbfbc7702b4
- Realised P&L
- $-40.38
- Volume
- $1.1k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $120.87
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration67.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration98.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel election: will Likud lose seats? · Yes | 0.866 | 0.935 | $119.09 | +$8.73 |
| Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.080 | $1.78 | −$0.22 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? · No | 0.064 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.159 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.00 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.640 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$34.00 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$20.42at 0.772Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$9.06at 0.910Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
- +$0.71at 0.810Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?
- +$-2.07at 0.580Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-16 15:39 | Israel election: will Likud lose seats? | BUY | 0.8664669249 | $110.36 |
| 07-16 15:31 | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.9915855109 | $110.05 |
| 06-20 14:41 | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $101.00 |
| 06-20 08:53 | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.966 | $101.95 |
| 05-13 20:04 | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.8399999968 | $31.54 |
| 05-13 20:03 | Will Israel annex any territory by December 31? | SELL | 0.829079125 | $30.70 |
| 05-13 20:00 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999966 | $14.00 |
| 05-13 19:59 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.48 | $9.93 |
| 05-02 11:01 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6199999981 | $20.00 |
| 05-02 11:01 | Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0899999599 | $2.00 |
| 04-25 21:09 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.0899999892 | $7.00 |
| 04-20 09:02 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? | BUY | 0.0641151984 | $5.00 |
| 04-18 10:16 | Will Israel annex any territory by December 31? | BUY | 0.8099999957 | $30.00 |
| 04-18 10:13 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.5799999845 | $12.00 |
| 04-17 14:35 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1586367157 | $16.00 |