0x1683eab03d39fcf15b332d5046827527ca897f83
0x1683eab03d39fcf15b332d5046827527ca897f83
- Realised P&L
- $-4.70
- Volume
- $83.64
- Markets traded
- 42
- Open portfolio
- $3.49
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded42
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample39 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)51.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.962 | $1.50 | +$0.50 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22? · No | 0.660 | 0.984 | $1.49 | +$0.49 |
| Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $487.50 Week of September 21 2026? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.315 | $0.49 | −$0.51 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.31at 0.308Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
- +$2.00at 0.339Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during September Press Conference?
- +$1.61at 0.389Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 Week of August 24 2026?
- +$0.94at 0.520Meta (META) Up or Down on September 17?
- +$0.87at 0.540Will Warsh say "Good Morning" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-20 22:15 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $487.50 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 07:41 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 17:25 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 07:48 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $66 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 23:34 | Meta (META) Up or Down on September 17? | BUY | 0.5099998215 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 15:32 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 16? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 06:48 | Will Warsh say "Scenario" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 09-15 22:48 | Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 21:16 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $755 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 00:19 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14? | BUY | 0.7299994744 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 10:02 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 02:02 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 10? | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 17:04 | Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during RNC Convention? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 09:03 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 16:22 | LAPTOP airdrop by September 9? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |