kg777
0x16834fb86a1cf61c3b38ebd1585a736db6791010
- Realised P&L
- $-2.0k
- Volume
- $32.1k
- Markets traded
- 28
- Open portfolio
- $724.99
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded28
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.725 | $724.99 | +$175.00 |
| Boxing: Will Dubois win by Decision? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.00 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? · No | 0.612 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$150.00 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in September? · Yes | 0.489 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.9k |
| Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 20? · No | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$94.39 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on April 14? · No | 0.612 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Boxing: Will Usyk vs. Dubois end in a Draw? · Yes | 0.031 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Boxing: Will Usyk win by Decision? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$255.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 11? · Yes | 0.198 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.25 |
| Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 · Dubois | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$288.90at 0.600Will Ethereum dip to $1,900.00 by March 31?
- +$182.03at 0.353Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$143.50at 0.590Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?
- +$121.05at 0.570Will Usyk beat Fury?
- +$116.09at 0.273US military action against Iran before July?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-20 17:29 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.58 | $2.90 |
| 09-20 17:06 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.58 | $2.90 |
| 07-21 19:06 | Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.945 | $25.50 |
| 04-14 11:30 | Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on April 14? | BUY | 0.6 | $2.88 |
| 04-12 19:05 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on April 13? | BUY | 0.65 | $43.91 |
| 04-10 17:55 | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 11? | BUY | 0.19 | $1.08 |
| 04-10 17:51 | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 11? | BUY | 0.19 | $26.72 |
| 04-02 15:28 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 3? | BUY | 0.39 | $3.30 |
| 03-21 21:10 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on March 21? | SELL | 0.44 | $4.40 |
| 03-21 15:10 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on March 22? | BUY | 0.11 | $16.50 |
| 03-21 12:47 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on March 21? | BUY | 0.7 | $7.00 |
| 03-18 11:26 | Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 20? | BUY | 0.25 | $94.39 |
| 02-28 14:34 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | BUY | 0.6124210162 | $150.00 |
| 09-01 22:12 | Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in September? | BUY | 0.49 | $940.80 |
| 09-01 22:09 | Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in September? | BUY | 0.49 | $152.39 |