0x1682eb45e7adb491f192bfcecd227eab5e5d09d4
0x1682eb45e7adb491f192bfcecd227eab5e5d09d4
- Realised P&L
- $3.96
- Volume
- $731.98
- Markets traded
- 222
- Open portfolio
- $4.97
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded222
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration5.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? · Yes | 0.326 | 0.644 | $1.98 | +$0.98 |
| Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? · Yes | 0.202 | 0.205 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
| Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026? · No | 0.670 | 0.675 | $1.01 | +$0.01 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · No | 0.690 | 0.670 | $0.97 | −$0.03 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.44at 0.218Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
- +$7.01at 0.229Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
- +$7.01at 0.229Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
- +$6.63at 0.237Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of August 2026?
- +$5.73at 0.642Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 11:11 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.2019999612 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 03:11 | Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 19:11 | Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? | BUY | 0.3259999641 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 10:58 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 02:58 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 14:29 | Will Corpus Christi FC win on 2026-10-07? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 13:53 | SC Internacional vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 15:35 | Will FC Supra Du Quebec win on 2026-10-07? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 11:59 | Will Spalding United FC win on 2026-10-06? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 11:24 | Will Guandong GZ-Power FC win on 2026-10-07? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 07:32 | Wingate & Finchley FC vs. Bedford Town FC: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 12:52 | Kazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 19:45 | Will CA Bucaramanga win on 2026-10-04? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 17:13 | Will El Salvador win on 2026-10-05? | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 15:48 | Costa Rica vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |