mdhsrth
0x164be05b0f1d8357ae2bf9e320c30021af9cdc19
- Realised P&L
- $-26.57
- Volume
- $16.7k
- Markets traded
- 81
- Open portfolio
- $36.83
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded81
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration94.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will BNB reach $1000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.205 | $34.83 | −$33.13 |
| Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? · No | 0.998 | 0.998 | $2.00 | +$0.00 |
| Pump.fun announces public raise sold out in the first hour? · No | 0.370 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.73at 0.846Will Ethereum reach $4500 in September?
- +$1.70at 0.900Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?
- +$1.43at 0.910Solana reach 240 September 1–7?
- +$1.17at 0.741Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?
- +$0.93at 0.940Will Google have the best AI model on October 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-08 01:30 | Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $2.00 |
| 08-24 09:58 | Will BNB reach $1,000 in August? | BUY | 0.994 | $2.00 |
| 08-10 08:36 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on August 13? | BUY | 0.998 | $2.20 |
| 07-26 02:50 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in July? | BUY | 0.9969995269 | $2.00 |
| 07-04 09:39 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on July 7? | BUY | 0.997 | $2.00 |
| 06-21 13:40 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? | BUY | 0.997 | $2.00 |
| 06-03 07:54 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on June 5? | BUY | 0.998 | $2.00 |
| 05-09 05:08 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | BUY | 0.9699999951 | $2.00 |
| 04-23 11:47 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? | BUY | 0.9809999925 | $2.22 |
| 04-23 11:46 | Will BNB reach $1000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.25 | $2.23 |
| 02-19 05:53 | Will BNB reach $1000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $71.54 |
| 01-22 12:39 | Will OpenAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $70.82 |
| 01-06 12:37 | Will XRP dip to $1.50 January 5-11? | BUY | 0.999 | $18.62 |
| 01-06 12:36 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.9989999843 | $52.13 |
| 12-16 15:03 | Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025? | BUY | 0.9749999843 | $20.20 |