Conderf
0x162bf7990a0430083cd12160a8d263cc7e2563d3
- Realised P&L
- $1.76
- Volume
- $12.8k
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $0.16
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration89.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)25.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Prymorske by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.027 | 0.009 | $0.16 | −$0.35 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$42.02at 0.912Spread: Dalian Yingbo FC (-2.5)
- +$4.70at 0.990Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-2.5)
- +$0.49at 0.971Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?
- +$0.00at 0.954Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?
- +$0.00at 0.950Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-30 07:58 | Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.95 | $237.53 |
| 07-13 05:07 | Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 44m? | SELL | 0.001070307 | $0.11 |
| 07-11 09:19 | Will Riz Ahmed – “Bait” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie? | SELL | 0.15 | $0.75 |
| 07-11 09:18 | Will Riz Ahmed – “Bait” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie? | SELL | 0.16 | $48.00 |
| 05-30 05:25 | Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31? | SELL | 0.05 | $57.25 |
| 05-29 06:37 | Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $459.00 |
| 05-29 05:06 | US military draft authorized in 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $718.89 |
| 05-28 08:04 | Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? | SELL | 0.9 | $7.20 |
| 05-28 06:39 | Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $717.08 |
| 05-28 05:34 | Yoon out of custody before 2027? | BUY | 0.897 | $178.06 |
| 05-02 08:35 | Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-2.5) | BUY | 0.99 | $479.16 |
| 05-02 07:40 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.971 | $475.79 |
| 05-01 06:59 | Spread: Dalian Yingbo FC (-2.5) | BUY | 0.91 | $436.80 |
| 05-01 06:00 | Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.954 | $431.21 |