LauraStuart5658
0x16176cfb3b8ca348b9e0c8e158524cedd9c8ec98
- Realised P&L
- $-1.0k
- Volume
- $226.1k
- Markets traded
- 416
- Open portfolio
- $18.81
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded416
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · No | 0.550 | 0.515 | $9.79 | −$0.67 |
| Will USD-denominated stablecoin market share fall below 99% in 2026? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.070 | $6.51 | −$13.02 |
| Will Aaron Rodgers retire before next season? · No | 0.530 | 1.000 | $1.00 | +$0.47 |
| Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? · No | 0.800 | 0.840 | $0.84 | +$0.04 |
| Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.160 | $0.64 | −$0.08 |
| Ramp IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.038 | $0.04 | −$0.18 |
| Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? · Yes | 0.472 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$18.42 |
| Will Perena launch a token by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.38 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$421.20at 0.460Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-01-04?
- +$245.95at 0.512Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahce
- +$234.78at 0.140Al Kholood Saudi Club vs. Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club: Both Teams to Score
- +$199.48at 0.150Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?
- +$130.50at 0.710Will the Chicago Bears be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-12 16:38 | Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election? | SELL | 0.798 | $36.71 |
| 04-11 06:59 | US bank failure by December 31? | SELL | 0.41 | $104.96 |
| 04-11 06:58 | US bank failure by December 31? | SELL | 0.41 | $216.89 |
| 04-11 06:56 | US bank failure by December 31? | SELL | 0.41 | $146.78 |
| 04-11 03:00 | Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election? | BUY | 0.828 | $38.09 |
| 04-11 02:04 | US bank failure by December 31? | BUY | 0.42 | $480.06 |
| 04-09 22:01 | Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026? | SELL | 0.19 | $4.37 |
| 04-09 21:53 | Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026? | SELL | 0.19 | $5.70 |
| 04-08 02:55 | Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-01-04? | BUY | 0.46 | $358.80 |
| 03-13 01:47 | Southern Illinois Salukis vs. Evansville Aces | BUY | 0.64 | $581.12 |
| 03-11 03:55 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | SELL | 0.388 | $41.13 |
| 03-06 07:03 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | BUY | 0.74 | $78.44 |
| 03-06 04:47 | Al Kholood Saudi Club vs. Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club: Both Teams to Score | BUY | 0.88 | $674.96 |
| 02-28 14:16 | Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027? | SELL | 0.59 | $71.98 |
| 02-28 14:15 | Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027? | SELL | 0.59 | $274.35 |