PolBandit
0x15fdd6a159788bd7d382f5669a047ad0fcb2cc95
- Realised P&L
- $19.0k
- Volume
- $2.51M
- Markets traded
- 90
- Open portfolio
- $94.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded90
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration75.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$26.8kat 0.827Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
- +$10.4kat 0.748Trump out as President by June 30?
- +$10.3kat 0.905Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
- +$7.0kat 0.936Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
- +$5.9kat 0.794Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 02:13 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.87 | $12.2k |
| 09-01 23:43 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BUY | 0.973 | $194.60 |
| 08-27 14:04 | Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.81 | $6.3k |
| 08-27 14:03 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.89 | $12.1k |
| 08-27 13:51 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.9848791218 | $18.5k |
| 08-08 20:45 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $3.8k |
| 08-08 20:34 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BUY | 0.77 | $6.2k |
| 08-08 20:31 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $7.7k |
| 08-08 20:27 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.92 | $52.4k |
| 07-16 01:02 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.84 | $5.7k |
| 07-15 02:26 | Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? | BUY | 0.9587279702 | $14.2k |
| 07-05 02:41 | Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7598582744 | $910.38 |
| 07-05 02:40 | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.976 | $37.4k |
| 07-05 02:39 | Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.974 | $75.2k |
| 07-04 17:42 | Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.9849174623 | $7.1k |