0x15e77d1ee3d905e3a401dcfff23c5a9651c13226
0x15e77d1ee3d905e3a401dcfff23c5a9651c13226
- Realised P&L
- $-6.25
- Volume
- $249.12
- Markets traded
- 65
- Open portfolio
- $1.85
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded65
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? · Yes | 0.329 | 0.280 | $0.85 | −$0.15 |
| Will Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 16? · No | 0.640 | 0.510 | $0.80 | −$0.20 |
| Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $730 Week of October 12 2026? · No | 0.810 | 0.165 | $0.20 | −$0.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.44at 0.218Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?
- +$5.92at 0.259Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision?
- +$5.33at 0.280Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?
- +$2.82at 0.422Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?
- +$1.91at 0.490Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $70 Week of July 27 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 21:38 | Will Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 16? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 21:00 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.3289999651 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 23:17 | Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $730 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.8099999352 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 15:01 | Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 05:30 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.6619995697 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 08:26 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 00:26 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 22:30 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 14:27 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 06:22 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 14:56 | Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.50 on September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7039998536 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 15:19 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.3299999489 | $2.00 |
| 09-13 04:10 | Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 17:57 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.6499999025 | $2.00 |
| 09-08 09:36 | Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August? | BUY | 0.32 | $2.00 |