0x15d368a75e5645c003a624f6f567a6a049ce7d1a-1792328635986
0x15d368a75e5645c003a624f6f567a6a049ce7d1a
- Realised P&L
- $5.5k
- Volume
- $33.7k
- Markets traded
- 4
- Open portfolio
- $10.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar16.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded4
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- Not knownSettled sample0 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- CautionOpen concentration97.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on October 18? · Yes | 0.085 | 0.951 | $10.0k | +$9.1k |
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 18? · No | 0.973 | 0.985 | $178.81 | +$2.12 |
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on October 18? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.024 | $78.81 | +$66.36 |
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on October 18? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.006 | $16.25 | +$8.76 |
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 23:29 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 18? | BUY | 0.974 | $22.04 |
| 10-18 23:28 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 18? | BUY | 0.9726919932 | $154.65 |
| 10-18 23:25 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on October 18? | BUY | 0.0087392221 | $7.46 |
| 10-18 23:13 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 18? | SELL | 0.4963703704 | $134.02 |
| 10-18 23:12 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 18? | SELL | 0.484247992 | $243.58 |
| 10-18 23:11 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 18? | SELL | 0.484 | $84.70 |
| 10-18 23:10 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 18? | SELL | 0.500435048 | $143.50 |
| 10-18 23:10 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 18? | SELL | 0.5018697518 | $268.95 |
| 10-18 23:10 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 18? | SELL | 0.50088704 | $250.44 |
| 10-18 23:08 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on October 18? | SELL | 0.424095039 | $178.49 |
| 10-18 19:26 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 18? | BUY | 0.158 | $31.60 |
| 10-18 19:24 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on October 18? | BUY | 0.1435351612 | $73.13 |
| 10-18 19:05 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on October 18? | BUY | 0.003 | $0.25 |
| 10-18 18:34 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 18? | BUY | 0.1499227 | $59.97 |
| 10-18 18:30 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on October 18? | BUY | 0.11 | $13.64 |