HiddenName
0x15d30f7944e90b949578d9ea84491d1e68e07b7f
- Realised P&L
- $19.32
- Volume
- $1.3k
- Markets traded
- 33
- Open portfolio
- $44.09
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded33
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)85.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration70.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$43.46at 0.170Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?
- +$34.91at 0.150Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?
- +$12.74at 0.399Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?
- +$6.95at 0.590Will TikTok be banned again before May?
- +$5.74at 0.450Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 21:50 | Will Spain win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $2.00 |
| 09-03 16:24 | Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $10.00 |
| 03-04 11:49 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.1779999964 | $40.00 |
| 03-04 11:46 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.1779999944 | $25.00 |
| 12-19 18:27 | Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? | BUY | 0.4499999665 | $4.70 |
| 12-19 18:27 | Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? | BUY | 0.5199999584 | $5.50 |
| 11-04 20:33 | Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? | BUY | 0.15799989 | $1.00 |
| 11-04 20:31 | Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? | BUY | 0.6199998729 | $4.00 |
| 11-04 20:30 | Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? | SELL | 0.0173211538 | $0.27 |
| 10-30 13:03 | Will Anca Alexandrescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | BUY | 0.0769999599 | $1.67 |
| 10-30 13:02 | Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | BUY | 0.1899999667 | $4.00 |
| 10-30 13:02 | Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | BUY | 0.2776966297 | $5.84 |
| 10-30 13:02 | Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | BUY | 0.3993964257 | $8.47 |
| 10-30 12:53 | Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | SELL | 0.882 | $11.97 |
| 10-30 12:52 | Will Frans Timmermans become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.05 |