PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

HiddenName

0x15d30f7944e90b949578d9ea84491d1e68e07b7f

Realised P&L
$19.32
Volume
$1.3k
Markets traded
33
Open portfolio
$44.09

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded33
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration35.9% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample14 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)85.7%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration70.8% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.1780.086$31.22$33.78
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? · No0.8000.875$10.94+$0.94
Will Spain win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League? · Yes0.2700.260$1.93$0.07
US recession in 2025? · Yes0.5600.000$0.00$10.00
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? · Yes0.0700.000$0.00$2.88
Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? · Yes0.3800.000$0.00$20.65
Trump-Putin-Xi meeting before July? · Yes0.0700.000$0.00$2.00
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-04-08? · Yes0.3300.000$0.00$3.00
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? · Yes0.5200.000$0.00$5.50
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? · Yes0.1100.000$0.00$4.52
Will Israel annex Gazan territory before July? · Yes0.0600.000$0.00$1.00
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? · Yes0.0640.000$0.00$2.63
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? · Yes0.1580.000$0.00$1.00
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? · Yes0.2780.000$0.00$5.84
Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest? · Yes0.1900.000$0.00$4.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-23 21:50Will Spain win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League?BUY0.2699999784$2.00
09-03 16:24Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?BUY0.8$10.00
03-04 11:49Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.1779999964$40.00
03-04 11:46Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.1779999944$25.00
12-19 18:27Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?BUY0.4499999665$4.70
12-19 18:27Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?BUY0.5199999584$5.50
11-04 20:33Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election?BUY0.15799989$1.00
11-04 20:31Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?BUY0.6199998729$4.00
11-04 20:30Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025?SELL0.0173211538$0.27
10-30 13:03Will Anca Alexandrescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?BUY0.0769999599$1.67
10-30 13:02Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest?BUY0.1899999667$4.00
10-30 13:02Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest?BUY0.2776966297$5.84
10-30 13:02Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?BUY0.3993964257$8.47
10-30 12:53Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?SELL0.882$11.97
10-30 12:52Will Frans Timmermans become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?SELL0.001$0.05