0x15CAc85079C46854B5fCb2ee06874459f6E1C0dB-1772316450342
0x15cac85079c46854b5fcb2ee06874459f6e1c0db
- Realised P&L
- $-14.85
- Volume
- $1.7k
- Markets traded
- 159
- Open portfolio
- $5.15
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded159
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the TX-32 House seat? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.875 | $5.15 | +$0.15 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET · Down | 0.364 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.43 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET · Up | 0.347 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.70 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET · Up | 0.101 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET · Down | 0.265 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.31 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$22.19at 0.677Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET
- +$18.20at 0.440Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
- +$15.90at 0.708Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET
- +$15.58at 0.729Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET
- +$15.37at 0.738Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-10 08:01 | Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.997 | $1.28 |
| 06-10 08:01 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | SELL | 0.91 | $1.10 |
| 05-08 17:41 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET | SELL | 0.53 | $3.12 |
| 05-08 17:40 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET | BUY | 0.5099999983 | $3.00 |
| 05-08 17:37 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET | BUY | 0.0699999363 | $1.00 |
| 05-08 17:36 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET | BUY | 0.1799998704 | $1.00 |
| 05-08 17:33 | Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | SELL | 0.996 | $2.11 |
| 05-08 17:32 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL | 0.998 | $1.36 |
| 04-19 21:35 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $6.68 |
| 04-19 21:34 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET | BUY | 0.8799999413 | $5.90 |
| 04-19 21:08 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET | SELL | 0.36 | $3.68 |
| 04-19 21:07 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET | BUY | 0.1899998784 | $0.88 |
| 04-19 21:07 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET | BUY | 0.3299997822 | $0.90 |
| 04-19 21:05 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET | BUY | 0.4 | $0.91 |
| 04-19 21:05 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $1.43 |