0x15c8906807d2be08d7d2c823acdcda52c2a662ae
0x15c8906807d2be08d7d2c823acdcda52c2a662ae
- Realised P&L
- $-14.97
- Volume
- $745.21
- Markets traded
- 70
- Open portfolio
- $14.08
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded70
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anne Hathaway baby: Boy or Girl? · Boy | 0.510 | 0.305 | $5.98 | −$4.02 |
| Will Christopher Nolan win Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.590 | $4.34 | −$0.66 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.305 | $1.99 | −$1.01 |
| Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet engaged in 2026? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.100 | $0.74 | −$1.26 |
| Will J.D. Vance announce a presidential run before 2027? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.038 | $0.54 | −$1.46 |
| Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.080 | $0.48 | −$1.52 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.08at 0.749Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?
- +$4.59at 0.312Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?
- +$4.49at 0.191Bitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET
- +$4.32at 0.325Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?
- +$4.20at 0.202Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 18:59 | Will Christopher Nolan win Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.6799999728 | $5.00 |
| 10-16 18:58 | Russell Brand convicted of sex crimes by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.7199999942 | $10.00 |
| 10-16 18:55 | Anne Hathaway baby: Boy or Girl? | BUY | 0.5099999776 | $10.00 |
| 08-21 13:31 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4599999264 | $3.00 |
| 07-20 12:32 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 21? | BUY | 0.02 | $1.00 |
| 07-20 11:05 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET | BUY | 0.1799998704 | $1.00 |
| 07-20 11:02 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET | BUY | 0.1699998861 | $1.00 |
| 07-20 10:58 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET | BUY | 0.089999919 | $1.00 |
| 07-19 16:30 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET | BUY | 0.2199998548 | $1.00 |
| 07-19 16:25 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET | BUY | 0.2199998548 | $1.00 |
| 07-19 16:17 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET | BUY | 0.5699998233 | $1.00 |
| 07-19 16:15 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET | BUY | 0.3899998479 | $1.00 |
| 07-19 16:07 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET | BUY | 0.04 | $1.00 |
| 07-19 16:06 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET | BUY | 0.4699998778 | $1.00 |
| 07-19 16:05 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET | BUY | 0.3599998704 | $1.00 |