marvin51-426
0x15c371857744227ef9a1e56894744f85fe40748b
- Realised P&L
- $74.84
- Volume
- $14.2k
- Markets traded
- 77
- Open portfolio
- $23.70
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded77
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts vs. Commanders · Colts | 0.640 | 0.645 | $23.70 | +$0.18 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$90.36at 0.470South Florida vs. San José State
- +$4.39at 0.750Ripple above $2.40 on January 10?
- +$0.54at 0.985Will Google have the top AI model on October 31?
- +$0.49at 0.989Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31?
- +$0.17at 0.968Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 13:48 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in January? | BUY | 0.9989999436 | $13.24 |
| 01-30 17:52 | Will XRP reach $2.80 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $17.60 |
| 01-30 12:57 | Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $17.19 |
| 01-30 12:22 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? | BUY | 0.9979999929 | $66.25 |
| 12-30 12:14 | Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? | BUY | 0.9989999706 | $19.41 |
| 12-30 00:41 | Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.9979999594 | $17.29 |
| 12-29 23:22 | Will Trump pardon Do Kwon in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $13.22 |
| 12-29 23:00 | Will Trump pardon Diddy in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $35.19 |
| 12-29 20:18 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? | BUY | 0.9989999736 | $29.20 |
| 10-30 18:10 | Will Meta have the second best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $35.20 |
| 10-30 17:59 | Will Google have the top AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.9849999999 | $35.34 |
| 09-29 18:43 | Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.81 |
| 09-29 14:16 | Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.9939999282 | $13.42 |
| 09-29 03:17 | Will XRP dip to $1.80 in September? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.83 |
| 09-29 00:23 | Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.26 |