defeatatmarengo
0x15bbce8ac228aac2d406ede4d54fc62de66922b3
- Realised P&L
- $-565.89
- Volume
- $18.8k
- Markets traded
- 46
- Open portfolio
- $2.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded46
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.55at 0.699Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?
- +$8.39at 0.961Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
- +$3.59at 0.964Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$1.39at 0.984Will Nigel Farage up his vote share in Clacton?
- +$0.56at 0.649Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-13 22:54 | Will Moderate Party (M) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes? | SELL | 0.854 | $256.20 |
| 09-13 22:52 | Will Moderate Party (M) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes? | SELL | 0.8726360477 | $220.97 |
| 09-07 11:05 | Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats? | BUY | 0.4399999981 | $100.00 |
| 09-07 10:33 | Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats? | BUY | 0.4174732952 | $200.00 |
| 09-02 15:36 | Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.42 | $84.00 |
| 09-02 15:34 | Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win at least 20% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.39 | $78.00 |
| 09-02 15:33 | Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win between 30% and 33% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.35 | $105.00 |
| 09-02 15:28 | Will Moderate Party (M) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.26 | $98.80 |
| 09-02 15:15 | Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.1199999947 | $19.00 |
| 09-02 15:14 | Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes? | SELL | 0.09 | $14.40 |
| 09-02 15:13 | Will Moderate Party (M) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.24 | $14.64 |
| 09-02 14:56 | Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win at least 33% of all valid votes? | SELL | 0.033 | $3.30 |
| 09-02 09:35 | Will Moderate Party (M) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.25 | $100.00 |
| 09-02 09:35 | Will Moderate Party (M) win between 16% and 18% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.3765888571 | $100.00 |
| 09-02 09:23 | Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.4599999844 | $10.00 |