defeatatmarengo
0x15bbce8ac228aac2d406ede4d54fc62de66922b3
- Realised P&L
- $23.56
- Volume
- $6.1k
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $1.9k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration99.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.20at 0.959Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
- +$0.01at 0.994Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by July 31, 2026?
- +$-0.05at 0.200Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
- +$-1.19at 0.840Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
- +$-23.51at 0.093Will William Clouston get second place in the Clacton by-election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 18:40 | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.8599999993 | $92.48 |
| 08-03 18:40 | Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | SELL | 0.79 | $93.85 |
| 08-03 18:39 | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.8599999891 | $6.30 |
| 08-03 16:46 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.994 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 16:43 | Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? | BUY | 0.9105983744 | $150.00 |
| 08-03 16:29 | Will Nigel Farage win 50–60% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? | BUY | 0.9254960731 | $200.00 |
| 08-03 16:27 | Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? | BUY | 0.9 | $10.00 |
| 08-03 16:26 | Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? | SELL | 0.984 | $362.08 |
| 08-02 22:13 | Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? | BUY | 0.89 | $142.40 |
| 08-02 22:12 | Will William Clouston get second place in the Clacton by-election? | SELL | 0.0151433333 | $4.54 |
| 08-02 09:25 | Will William Clouston get second place in the Clacton by-election? | BUY | 0.094 | $14.10 |
| 08-02 09:25 | Will William Clouston get second place in the Clacton by-election? | BUY | 0.093 | $6.84 |
| 07-30 17:33 | Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? | BUY | 0.69 | $69.00 |
| 07-30 17:04 | Will Kyriakos Mitsotakis be the next Prime Minister of Greece? | BUY | 0.89 | $4.45 |
| 07-30 17:02 | Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | BUY | 0.81 | $97.20 |