PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

defeatatmarengo

0x15bbce8ac228aac2d406ede4d54fc62de66922b3

Realised P&L
$-565.89
Volume
$18.8k
Markets traded
46
Open portfolio
$2.3k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-3.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded46
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration45.3% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample15 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)46.7%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration25.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Moderate Party (M) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes? · Yes0.2530.982$585.73+$434.80
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? · Yes0.8070.925$569.56+$72.58
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.4800.566$532.36+$80.30
Will Left Party (V) win between 7% and 9% of all valid votes? · Yes0.3860.996$445.21+$272.65
Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win between 27% and 30% of all valid votes? · Yes0.3601.000$81.97+$52.45
Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win between 16% and 18% of all valid votes? · Yes0.1000.999$22.98+$20.68
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0980.116$11.79+$1.79
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.0490.022$11.36$13.38
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.0350.015$11.18$13.91
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0130.015$5.96+$0.96
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0120.011$4.37$0.63
Will Kyriakos Mitsotakis be the next Prime Minister of Greece? · Yes0.8900.755$3.77$0.68
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.2600.245$3.77$0.23
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? · No0.8800.875$3.10$0.02
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.3130.381$2.43+$0.43

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-13 22:54Will Moderate Party (M) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes?SELL0.854$256.20
09-13 22:52Will Moderate Party (M) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes?SELL0.8726360477$220.97
09-07 11:05Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?BUY0.4399999981$100.00
09-07 10:33Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?BUY0.4174732952$200.00
09-02 15:36Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes?BUY0.42$84.00
09-02 15:34Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win at least 20% of all valid votes?BUY0.39$78.00
09-02 15:33Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win between 30% and 33% of all valid votes?BUY0.35$105.00
09-02 15:28Will Moderate Party (M) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes?BUY0.26$98.80
09-02 15:15Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes?BUY0.1199999947$19.00
09-02 15:14Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes?SELL0.09$14.40
09-02 15:13Will Moderate Party (M) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes?BUY0.24$14.64
09-02 14:56Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win at least 33% of all valid votes?SELL0.033$3.30
09-02 09:35Will Moderate Party (M) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes?BUY0.25$100.00
09-02 09:35Will Moderate Party (M) win between 16% and 18% of all valid votes?BUY0.3765888571$100.00
09-02 09:23Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes?BUY0.4599999844$10.00