zwk111
0x15b479fc3cc1e53123b701a10b14aa5a5b2b5fc5
- Realised P&L
- $1.8k
- Volume
- $9.5k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $4.7k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar18.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration69.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.452 | 0.630 | $1.4k | +$385.39 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.246 | 0.455 | $862.18 | +$395.34 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.321 | 0.535 | $747.59 | +$299.28 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.700 | $555.35 | +$134.61 |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · No | 0.750 | 0.920 | $552.30 | +$102.30 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.161 | 0.262 | $322.78 | +$124.07 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.320 | $249.51 | +$109.33 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.390 | $31.62 | +$13.78 |
| Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? · Yes | 0.508 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$60.45 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$200.00at 0.200Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?
- +$47.15at 0.490USC Trojans vs. Washington Huskies
- +$40.00at 0.600Hurricanes vs. Flyers
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 14:01 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $450.00 |
| 04-13 20:40 | Hurricanes vs. Flyers | BUY | 0.6 | $60.00 |
| 04-13 17:46 | Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.22 | $17.84 |
| 04-12 19:55 | Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | BUY | 0.15 | $15.00 |
| 04-12 19:52 | Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? | BUY | 0.508 | $11.18 |
| 04-10 18:33 | Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | BUY | 0.34 | $17.00 |
| 04-10 11:36 | Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.28 | $4.20 |
| 04-09 20:22 | Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.28 | $38.64 |
| 04-09 20:21 | Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.2786323463 | $55.80 |
| 04-09 19:06 | Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | BUY | 0.18 | $18.00 |
| 04-09 13:40 | Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.52 | $55.36 |
| 04-09 10:59 | Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.52 | $204.88 |
| 04-09 10:57 | Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.51 | $252.51 |
| 04-09 10:16 | Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.36 | $30.24 |
| 04-05 21:48 | Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.68 | $68.00 |