zwdddr04
0x15afffb1908337a331fa7f902b64df37e551ad0b
- Realised P&L
- $-153.32
- Volume
- $37.0k
- Markets traded
- 123
- Open portfolio
- $33.88
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded123
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration97.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 on October 8? · No | 0.963 | 0.994 | $33.00 | +$1.00 |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No | 0.969 | 0.850 | $0.88 | −$0.12 |
| Celtics vs. Magic · Celtics | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.61at 0.880Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on August 4?
- +$1.49at 0.750Kings vs. Thunder
- +$1.20at 0.040Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025?
- +$1.17at 0.976Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 5?
- +$1.08at 0.973Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 08:20 | Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 on October 8? | BUY | 0.9633067188 | $32.00 |
| 10-04 01:45 | Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 on October 3? | BUY | 0.994 | $32.00 |
| 09-16 02:44 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 16? | BUY | 0.9929999403 | $10.10 |
| 09-09 04:14 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 9? | BUY | 0.9869999404 | $10.10 |
| 09-08 11:42 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on September 8? | BUY | 0.9819999986 | $10.00 |
| 09-08 02:13 | Will Ethereum reach $2,550 on September 7? | BUY | 0.9889999999 | $9.80 |
| 08-19 21:12 | Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 August 17-23? | SELL | 0.2109034842 | $10.53 |
| 08-18 00:25 | Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 August 17-23? | BUY | 0.9709999929 | $48.50 |
| 08-17 13:11 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on August 17? | BUY | 0.999 | $48.40 |
| 08-16 13:00 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on August 16? | BUY | 0.996 | $48.10 |
| 08-05 01:46 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 5? | BUY | 0.9739999812 | $47.00 |
| 08-02 01:33 | Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 27-August 2? | BUY | 0.992 | $41.00 |
| 07-30 01:58 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 30? | BUY | 0.9708156633 | $40.00 |
| 07-29 01:58 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 29? | BUY | 0.9819999894 | $39.20 |
| 07-27 05:02 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 27? | BUY | 0.996 | $38.84 |