0x15AD4796ca7Ff55869BdB665E569FcBcA8b452eb-1767511485388
0x15ad4796ca7ff55869bdb665e569fcbca8b452eb
- Realised P&L
- $-2.2k
- Volume
- $159.4k
- Markets traded
- 33
- Open portfolio
- $39.39
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded33
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample29 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)20.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration96.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.001 | $37.99 | −$417.93 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.069 | 0.097 | $1.40 | +$0.40 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.303 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$639.15 |
| Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| France vs. Morocco: Team to Advance · Morocco | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$101.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$125.91at 0.472Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
- +$113.90at 0.306Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advance
- +$106.12at 0.498Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET
- +$80.64at 0.113Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?
- +$4.40at 0.696Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-15 21:53 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0689999387 | $1.00 |
| 07-15 21:47 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.4199999996 | $239.15 |
| 07-15 21:46 | Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | SELL | 0.999 | $238.89 |
| 07-15 21:12 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.4199999989 | $200.00 |
| 07-15 21:11 | Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.005 | $119.98 |
| 07-14 21:18 | Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | BUY | 0.4599999983 | $100.00 |
| 07-14 21:17 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.271 | $207.67 |
| 07-14 21:17 | Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | BUY | 0.4599999844 | $10.00 |
| 07-09 21:19 | Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw? | BUY | 0.3399999855 | $15.00 |
| 07-09 21:16 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.04 | $15.09 |
| 07-09 20:01 | France vs. Morocco: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.2249998481 | $1.00 |
| 07-08 17:13 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.256 | $196.18 |
| 07-08 16:59 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1879999993 | $200.00 |
| 07-06 20:39 | Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw? | BUY | 0.5299999899 | $10.00 |
| 07-06 20:39 | Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw? | BUY | 0.5299999986 | $50.00 |