0xCb2c39fEc968a0CFdf986F885fe2C40F44C87302-1769025359418
0x159fc4b8187cbd0cfd88fbaa776fc317053dbefb
- Realised P&L
- $-11.71
- Volume
- $189.10
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $37.67
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration64.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration90.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15? · No | 0.920 | 0.940 | $33.90 | +$0.72 |
| Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 10, 2026? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.335 | $1.72 | −$0.28 |
| OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 15? · No | 0.960 | 0.755 | $0.79 | −$0.21 |
| OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 15? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.245 | $0.64 | −$0.36 |
| Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 8, 2026? · Yes | 0.387 | 0.060 | $0.62 | −$3.38 |
| Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026? · No | 0.105 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.67at 0.460Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?
- +$0.38at 0.930Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 4, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-06 14:05 | Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $2.00 |
| 10-06 13:36 | Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999966 | $2.00 |
| 10-06 08:03 | Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499999438 | $2.00 |
| 10-05 03:08 | Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.0589999998 | $5.00 |
| 10-04 17:11 | Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.9299999888 | $5.00 |
| 10-04 15:25 | Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026? | SELL | 0.53 | $5.89 |
| 10-04 14:58 | Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.4899999824 | $5.00 |
| 10-04 14:44 | Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026? | SELL | 0.46 | $2.61 |
| 10-04 13:15 | Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.449999964 | $5.00 |
| 10-04 13:14 | Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.8799998733 | $5.00 |
| 10-04 13:02 | OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 15? | BUY | 0.96 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 13:02 | OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 15? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 11:57 | Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15? | BUY | 0.9207919158 | $3.18 |
| 10-04 11:56 | Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15? | BUY | 0.9199999988 | $30.00 |