0x159708ed886bb05603c2c05296ee24007dce5e08
- Realised P&L
- $-5.13
- Volume
- $62.76
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $15.57
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)25.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration18.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.855 | $2.80 | +$0.31 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.770 | $2.74 | +$0.25 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · No | 0.780 | 0.840 | $2.68 | +$0.19 |
| Will Trump say "Warren Buffett" during remarks in Las Vegas? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.280 | $2.49 | +$0.00 |
| Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $330 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.860 | 0.675 | $1.95 | −$0.54 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.430 | 0.265 | $1.53 | −$0.96 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.390 | 0.335 | $1.34 | −$0.22 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? · No | 0.360 | 0.003 | $0.02 | −$2.47 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? · No | 0.250 | 0.002 | $0.01 | −$2.48 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.83at 0.750Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $4.00 Week of August 3 2026?
- +$0.00at 0.500New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?
- +$0.00at 0.500Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?
- +$-0.04at 0.510Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 18:16 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $330 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.8599999586 | $2.49 |
| 08-04 10:14 | Will Trump say "Warren Buffett" during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.2799999235 | $2.49 |
| 08-04 02:12 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY | 0.7599999634 | $2.49 |
| 08-03 18:01 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.6999998032 | $2.49 |
| 08-03 09:59 | Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $4.00 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $2.49 |
| 08-02 21:14 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.7799999624 | $2.49 |
| 08-02 07:50 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.4299999516 | $2.49 |
| 08-01 23:33 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.49 |
| 08-01 13:09 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | BUY | 0.3599999422 | $2.49 |
| 08-01 03:34 | Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-31 19:33 | New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.04 |
| 07-31 11:31 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.39 | $1.56 |
| 07-29 16:00 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |