fgwert
0x15840899fbd7a871b2a0a046dcb3266caa9848e0
- Realised P&L
- $4.99
- Volume
- $6.0k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $9.64
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration47.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Washington Wizards make the 2027 NBA Playoffs? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.270 | $9.64 | −$0.36 |
| Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.47at 0.028Will 'Liar's Bar' win Most Innovative Gameplay in the 2024 Steam Awards?
- +$1.07at 0.487Will United States win on 2026-06-12?
- +$0.82at 0.550Will Metaplanet purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?
- +$0.56at 0.640More EU sanctions on Russia by March 31?
- +$0.47at 0.680Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-04-09?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-30 18:49 | Will the Washington Wizards make the 2027 NBA Playoffs? | BUY | 0.2799999854 | $10.00 |
| 06-12 08:52 | Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | BUY | 0.4799998272 | $1.00 |
| 06-11 13:44 | Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 06-11 13:43 | Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 02-27 12:44 | More EU sanctions on Russia by March 31? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 12-29 13:45 | Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? | BUY | 0.985 | $1.00 |
| 10-29 02:22 | Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31? | BUY | 0.8699992344 | $1.00 |
| 10-29 02:21 | Democratic sweep? | SELL | 0.82 | $1.03 |
| 09-23 13:31 | Democratic sweep? | BUY | 0.7899999921 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 13:30 | Will Bayern Munich finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings? | SELL | 0.979 | $0.98 |
| 08-30 21:19 | Will Bayern Munich finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings? | BUY | 0.997 | $1.00 |
| 07-26 16:24 | Will Metaplanet purchase Bitcoin July 22-28? | BUY | 0.55 | $1.00 |
| 06-28 05:40 | FIFA Club World Cup: Will Vinicius Junior score another goal? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 05-25 13:55 | Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander score the most total points in the NBA Western Conference Finals? | BUY | 0.7969999299 | $1.00 |
| 04-09 05:19 | Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-04-09? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |