0x15503e3d23abeff1fd5563fdb980b01df151a2d1
- Realised P&L
- $-13.33
- Volume
- $319.00
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $57.44
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- CautionSettled sample1 position
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)0.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.865 | 0.872 | $13.08 | +$0.10 |
| Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · No | 0.800 | 0.905 | $12.67 | +$1.47 |
| Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? · No | 0.924 | 0.964 | $11.57 | +$0.48 |
| U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? · No | 0.890 | 0.958 | $6.70 | +$0.47 |
| Modi out by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.931 | 0.944 | $5.66 | +$0.07 |
| OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.234 | 0.052 | $3.78 | −$13.04 |
| Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.065 | $2.21 | −$1.53 |
| Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.095 | $0.76 | −$0.36 |
| Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.080 | $0.56 | −$1.40 |
| Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.075 | $0.45 | −$1.35 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$-0.18at 0.836Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-21 02:13 | Modi out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.931 | $5.59 |
| 06-17 11:30 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.865 | $12.97 |
| 06-13 14:46 | Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.14 | $1.12 |
| 06-11 08:07 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.28 | $1.96 |
| 06-08 06:52 | Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.3 | $1.80 |
| 06-04 06:42 | Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.11 | $3.74 |
| 06-01 08:11 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.924 | $11.09 |
| 05-24 04:17 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.83 | $4.15 |
| 04-24 21:17 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.19 | $1.52 |
| 04-24 21:16 | Modi out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.891 | $5.35 |
| 04-22 20:18 | Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.8 | $11.20 |
| 03-24 15:41 | OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.24 | $6.24 |
| 03-13 09:36 | OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.23 | $10.58 |